Cooper & Secrest Associates for Sharen Neuhardt (5/27-6/2, likely voters):
Sharen Neuhardt (D): 35
Steve Austria (R): 41
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4%)
So despite only having 33% name recognition, Neuhardt only trails Austria, a state senator, by six points.
This is an R+6 open seat that the Democrats’ most-hyped recruit, Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly passed up, saying that Austria was probably too formidable for any Democrat to beat this year.
The numbers suggest otherwise. On the generic ballot, Democrats have a whopping 46-33 advantage over the Republicans. And despite Bush beating John Kerry by a 57-43 margin here in 2004, McCain only leads Obama by 43-40 in the district.
With enough resources, Neuhardt can put this district in play. So far, she’s done a pretty good job, raising $172K in her first fundraising quarter and ending March with a cash-on-hand parity with Austria.
SSP currently has this race on our list of Races to Watch, but it might merit an upgrade in its rating soon.
I was about to post a diary about this great bit of polling news!
The key, I think, is that this is an open seat, Neuhardt has shown good fund-raising potential and although she hasn’t run before she has put together a solid team of campaign professionals (and she is listening to them), and Ohio’s economy is an absolute mess – everybody is hurting, even in the suburbs.
I haven’t met Austria in person but what I hear is that you shake his hand … and that’s all there is. He is good-looking but doesn’t have an impressive legislative record (the Dayton Daily News endorsed Austria in the GOP primary but actually wrote that Hobson did this district a disservice by selecting Austria as an heir apparent) and as this poll shows he isn’t starting out with a strong base of support.
Does everyone really know their state senator?
A few in state wide leadership positions are well known. In NY, Joe Bruno is probably the best known Republican in elected office since Bloomberg became an independent. In NJ, my state senator, Richard Codey, served a fairly long stint as acting governor and is probably the best liked politician in the state. (Not saying much, if you remember all those Jersey polls). Most are unknown.
Overall, big and middle sized states have a ratio of 2 state senators per House member (top 10 by electoral votes with a “tie”). Ohio is the most average state of the group with 33 state senators and 18 US House members (1.83 senators per House member). Ohio incredibly average. Who’d have thunk. California and Texas are probably the only states where US House members (53 for CA,32 for TX) outnumber state senators (40 for CA, 31 for TX).
I bet he is kicking himself now. Politics is a gutsy game, you just gotta go for it in these Republican districts and hope for the best. He really should have read the tea leaves and realized this was going to be one huge wave of Democrats winning and he couldve been a part of that.
Go Neuhardt!